Friday, April 28, 2017

Is going to war with North Korea a good idea?

North Korea continues to test their missiles and their nuclear bombs while making claims that it could nuke the U.S. at any moment, which has caused a lot of countries to become alarmed. With tensions increasing between North Korea and the U.S., the outbreak of war is becoming more of a possibility. I personally do not believe that North Korea poses a real threat to the U.S. since none of the operational missiles North Korea has in its arsenal can reach the U.S. or its territories. Although North Korea is developing the Taepodong-2 and the KN-08 which could reach the continental U.S. none of them have had successful launches.  However, Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies believes that within five years North Korea will have intermediate to long range missiles which mean that within five years they will be able to pose a direct threat to the U.S. The current administration appears to want a direct confrontation with North Korea but this idea is a poor idea at best. The U.S. military is currently undermanned and stretched throughout the world and with a conflict of this magnitude, these issues would only be intensified. Also, the possibility of a quick victory is not possible without of the use of nuclear weapons and the chances of winning are bleak. According to CNN, North Korea has more than 1.2 million active duty soldiers and 7.7 million in reserve and 70 percent are near the 48 parallel. In addition, North Korea has the largest artillery in the world with most of it pointing towards Seoul a city of 25.6 million residents and the capital of South Korea. According to the National Interest, a war game predicted that Seoul could be, "hit by over half-a-million shells in under an hour." Another simulation in 2005 by Atlantic predicted that over 100,000 residents of Seoul would be killed in the first few days from the outbreak of war. Simulations, statistics, and the current state of the U.S. military demonstrate that attacking North Korea is a bad idea. I hope the current administration is fully informed and understands the gravity of the situation and decides to de-escalate. 

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